“I have enough time for this.”
You think that when planning something.
But after a few days pass by, you miss the mark. Then you caught yourself thinking, “I thought I had enough time for this! Why am I always running late on my plans?”
This happens to the best of us. As humans, we always overestimate our abilities.
Research shows that less than one-third of the projects in the tech world get done on time. In the industrial world, it takes 3.5 times longer than anticipated. And if you’re a writer on Medium, I’m sure you don’t publish as much as half of the articles you’ve planned.
This is the optimism bias.
This can lead to a bad psychological effect on our minds. When we miss our expected deadline, our motivation drops. We start to procrastinate.
Why we are overly optimistic about our time frame?
To answer this question in one sentence-
It’s in our nature.
As humans, we have a weird habit. We don’t think logically when we think about the future. We kind of rely on our gut feelings.
But the thing is, our guts aren’t always right.
We make this same mistake over and over again. If we had thought logically then we would have recognized the pattern long ago and fixed it. But with gut feelings, we repeat the same mistake.
Not only we feel overly optimistic about how things will turn out but also we ignore the possibilities of how hard obstacles we might face.
And this is not about time. It’s also about –
- Costs
- Risks
- Rewards
What happened with the Sydney Opera House?
The Sydney Opera House is a great example of this optimism bias.
In 1957, the Australian government predicted that this marvel of architecture would cost around 7 million Australian dollars & would be ready within 1963. The construction started in 1959.
In reality, it took $102 million, which is more than 10 times the initial estimate. And it took 14 years to finish the construction.
So as we now understand the optimism bias, how do we avoid it and plan smarter?
Be more realistic and less optimistic
Don’t get me wrong. Optimism is great. It’s what gives us hope on our darkest days and keeps us moving forward.
But when planning a project, you must be realistic and think with logic.
You should ask yourself-
- Have we done this same type of project before?
- How long it took?
- What are the obstacles you faced?
- What could possibly go wrong in this project?
Asking these questions will help you understand the actual time to complete that particular task or project.
But don’t forget to add a little bit more time just to be sure.
It’s like packing an umbrella in the rainy season. Hopefully, you won’t need it. But if it rains, you won’t be there running for cover.
Break the tasks down
A huge task or project can be overwhelming and a little bit unrealistic.
But if you break it down into little pieces, it will seem easy and achievable.
But the most important thing — you can allocate specific time to each of those small tasks more accurately. The margin of error will be narrow.
So slice the big project. Dice it. Don’t forget to celebrate the small victories. Give yourself a pat on the back when you finish one task on time.
Get a fresh pair of eyes
When you’re planning a project, every idea seems awesome, every plan flawless. But that’s just from your perspective.
So what you need is a fresh perspective. Someone who isn’t knee-deep involved in this project like yourself.
That person can give an unbiased opinion.
We often take criticism as a bad thing. But it’s not. In fact, constructive criticism plays an important role in our growth.
Listen to those criticisms and put them into action.
In short..
We like to dream big. And that’s good.
You are only as big as your dreams.
But in our enthusiasm, we overlook some details. That causes optimism bias.
You need to –
Break down your bigger tasks into smaller ones.
Use data from your previous projects to plan realistically.
Embrace outside perspectives.
Also, you should write everything down. Those who write down their goals are 42% more likely to achieve them than those who don’t write them down.
So write down every project you have, every small task you have.
And also, include a deadline with each of them.
Notion is a great tool for that. It’s free and easy to use.
I have created a Notion Task Planner Template to help me track my tasks & you can get it for free.